Wenqing Zhu, Shuoyuan Tan, Zhitong Zhou, Miaomiao Zhao, Yingquan Wang, Qi Li, Yang Zheng, Jianwei Shi
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represents a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, including China. Accurate prediction of CVD risk and implementation of preventive measures are critical. This study aimed to develop a short-term risk prediction model for CVD events among individuals aged ≥60 years in Shanghai, China.
Methods: Stratified random sampling recruited elderly individuals. Retrospective data (2016-2022) were analyzed using Lasso-Cox regression, followed by a multivariable Cox regression model. The risk scoring was visualized through a nomogram, and the model performance was assessed using calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic curves.
Results: A total of 9,636 individuals aged ≥60 years were included. The Lasso-Cox regression analysis showed male gender (HR=1.482), older age (HR=1.035), higher body mass index (HR=1.015), lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR=0.992), higher systolic blood pressure (HR=1.009), lower diastolic blood pressure (HR=0.982), higher fasting plasma glucose (HR=1.068), hypertension (HR=1.904), diabetes (HR=1.128), and lipid-lowering medication (HR=1.384) were related to higher CVD risk. The C-index in the training and validation data was 0.642 and 0.623, respectively. Calibration plots indicated good agreement between predicted and actual probabilities.
Conclusion: This short-term predictive model for CVD events among the elderly population exhibits good accuracy but moderate discriminative ability. More studies are warranted to investigate predictors (gender, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, hypertension, and lipid-lowering medication) of CVD incidence for the development of preventive measures.
期刊介绍:
Clinical Interventions in Aging, is an online, peer reviewed, open access journal focusing on concise rapid reporting of original research and reviews in aging. Special attention will be given to papers reporting on actual or potential clinical applications leading to improved prevention or treatment of disease or a greater understanding of pathological processes that result from maladaptive changes in the body associated with aging. This journal is directed at a wide array of scientists, engineers, pharmacists, pharmacologists and clinical specialists wishing to maintain an up to date knowledge of this exciting and emerging field.