Temporal trends and projections of urolithiasis in China and globally from 1990 to 2030: insights from the global burden of disease study 2021.

Abstract

Urolithiasis is a prevalent urological condition that poses a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study investigates the impact of urolithiasis in China and globally between 1990 and 2021, with projections through 2030. Data on incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), along with age-standardized rates (ASR), were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. Temporal trends were assessed by utilizing the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) and Joinpoint regression analysis. Decomposition analyses were performed to assess the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes. Future age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) were forecast using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. In 2021, the global number of urolithiasis cases reached 73.12 million, with China accounting for over 18 million. The condition primarily affects males and individuals aged 50-59 years. In both China and globally, the ASR of incidence and DALYs showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, with a more pronounced decline in China. However, the total number of incident cases continued to rise. Decomposition analysis revealed that population aging was a major contributor to the increase in cases in China, while global increases were largely driven by population growth. Projections from the ARIMA model indicate a slight further decrease in ASIRs by 2030 for both China and globally. These findings highlight the need for future efforts to focus on optimizing healthcare resources and strengthening primary prevention strategies to mitigate the public health impact of urolithiasis.