Categorization of drivers of change for emerging food safety risks.

Abstract

The emergence of food safety risks can be influenced by various causes, also known as drivers of change. Understanding the characteristics related to the manageability of these drivers and the health impact of their associated hazards is critical for effective food safety management and resource allocation. This study aims to categorize drivers of change for known food safety hazards based on their impact on human health and their manageability. Identified drivers were categorized and ranked through an expert survey and a PROMETHEE multi-criteria analysis. The weighted performance criteria are controllability and volatility of the driver, and likelihood and severity of the associated hazards. Results show that the severity of associated hazards is the most important criterion, while volatility of the driver is considered least important by experts. All drivers of change were ranked based on their potential impact on food safety and categorized in a driver matrix with four categories. Categorization is based on the combined effect of expected negative health impact (low or high) and manageability (difficult or easy). The four categories are: "monitor and adapt" (low, difficult), "analyze and optimize" (low, easy), "leverage and innovate" (high, easy), and finally "strategize and endure" (high, difficult). Two drivers-environmental contamination and geopolitical conflict-are categorized as difficult to manage and associated with highly likely and severe health consequences. These drivers represent critical challenges requiring long-term strategic efforts. Six drivers are highly manageable (low health impact: legislation, policies and governance, technologies in food production, food processing technologies; high impact: management of natural resources, bioprocesses, supply chain) and could be leveraged to influence food safety hazards. The results are shown to be robust against changes in criteria weighting. These findings can support decision makers in shifting focus toward manageable drivers and tailoring strategies by driver category. For effective action, it is essential to understand the specific risks and benefits of each driver and the burden of their associated hazards. Future work should explore the top-ranked drivers and integrate these insights into holistic food safety management strategies.