Study on the Correlation Between the Life Cycle of Glaciers and Surrounding Grasslands: A Case of the Urumqi River Headwater Region

Abstract

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report shows that climate change has increased glacier mass loss, affecting nearby vegetation growth. This study focuses on the headwater region of the Urumqi River, examining how changes in Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG) correlate with local NDVI variations and predicting future NDVI trends. Using August remote sensing images from 1989 to 2024, we analysed the grassland growth and glacier area changes with NDVI and NDSI. Field data from UG collected in 2012 helped build an ice flow model to predict the changes in the ice volume and runoff under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios from CMIP6 models, projecting to 2100. Additionally, a multiple linear regression model analysed correlations among the runoff, temperature, land cover and NDVI. The results suggest that by 2100, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, reduced runoff will limit the grassland growth. In contrast, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, where precipitation and temperature are higher, vegetation is expected to remain strong. The analysis also showed that glaciers in the study area are highly sensitive to climate warming, while the grassland responds more to changes in the river runoff. This indicates that glaciers act as direct indicators of climate change and significantly shape the region's ecological environment.