Running to stand still? Finding levers to address population shrinking in the Northern Territory of Australia

Abstract

Population shrinkage in rural Europe has echoes with demographic trends in Northern Australia, where some areas have experienced low growth or shrinkage for around a decade due to negative internal migration outcomes. Despite targeted policies to stimulate long-term growth, regions in Northern Australia struggle to attract and retain the ‘right’ sort of populations. Emblematic of this, the Northern Territory, Australia's most sparsely settled jurisdiction, had 32 successive quarters of negative internal migration leading up to the COVID pandemic and exchanges a fifth of its population each year through migration, births and deaths. It imports large numbers of early-career aged workers, most of whom leave in their 30s or early 40s. Constant inflows of new residents with a considerable risk of near-future out-migration sees the population ‘Running to stand still,’ with upticks in jobs and economic activity leading to future poor migration outcomes. Governments are interested in economic levers for internal migration and in this study, we analyse long-term data for key macroeconomic variables for the Northern Territory to ascertain their significance as leading correlates for improved net interstate migration. We find residential property prices are most significant but, against perceptions, jobs vacancies do not positively influence internal migration outcomes. The results emphasises the Northern Territory Government's limited volition to turn-around migration through its own macroeconomic settings, leaving it subject to external conditions. Constraints in economic levers mean other facets for attraction and retention, such as qualitative elements like quality education, lifestyle facilities, enhancing social networks and promoting the Territory as a place for multi-residence workers or retirees need to be considered in developing a holistic approach to population stagnation.