Digital economy, energy consumption and urban carbon emission reduction: empirical evidence from 278 cities in China

Abstract

The intensifying challenge of global climate change has made accelerating energy conservation and emission reduction an urgent global imperative. As one of the world’s largest carbon emitters, China plays a pivotal role in global decarbonization efforts. The digital economy, emerging as a key driver of China’s economic transformation, provides novel pathways for advancing carbon reduction. This paper employs kernel density estimation and ArcGIS 10.8 to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of the digital economy and urban carbon emissions in China. Using panel data from 278 prefecture-level cities, the study applies fixed-effects models, mediation effect models, and spatial Durbin models to explore the mechanisms and spatial impacts of the digital economy on carbon reduction. The findings reveal that: (1) the development of the digital economy exerts a significant “inverted U-shaped” influence on urban carbon emission reduction; (2) energy consumption intensity is the critical mechanism underlying the nonlinear relationship between the digital economy and carbon emissions; (3) the digital economyʼs impact on carbon emissions exhibits spatial spillover effects, following a similar “inverted U-shaped” trajectory. These results contribute valuable empirical insights into the dual objectives of digital economic growth and carbon emission reduction, offering policymakers guidance on leveraging digitalization to achieve sustainable and coordinated regional development.