Future scenarios for 100% renewables in Greece, untapped potential of marine renewable energies

Abstract

This study examines the potential contribution of marine renewable generators in Greece, in order to achieve a 100% renewable energy system by 2050. Using PyPSA-Eur, a cost-optimization model of the European energy system, possible energy transition pathways are explored, across five-year intervals from 2030 to 2050. For each five-year target, a new cost assumption dataset is used, one that follows estimated cost reduction learning rates. This version of the model is called PyPSA-Eur-MREL, and is modified to include marine power generators, i.e. floating wind, wave, tidal and floating solar, but also high fidelity climate data, in the scale of 5.5 ${\mathrm{km}}^2$ for wind and 4 ${\mathrm{km}}^2$ for wave resources. Three different approaches were employed in this investigation: greenfield, generator constrained, and a high-load scenario inspired by Greece’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). The analysis focused on generator capacity and performance, the levels of utilization and availability of each energy carrier and the land-use impact of onshore and offshore generators. While the first two scenarios exhibit similar overall system capacities, they differ in land-use requirements, with the constrained case installing more bottom-fixed wind turbines (1.2 GW), thereby reducing land occupation. The high-load scenario introduces floating wind turbines (4.5 GW), however, the scale of onshore installations remains substantial, covering nearly one-third of Greece’s total land area.