The power of policy words: PBC communications and their impact on capital flows amidst global crises

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102475

Yue Qiu , Kaixin Wang , Wenjing Xie , Xiangzhong Zheng

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigates the strategic role of the People's Bank of China's (PBC) monetary policy communications in shaping international capital flows, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty and crisis. By developing and applying a novel semi-supervised machine learning method to analyze the content of PBC's policy announcements, we extract thematic insights that have significantly influenced global investment behaviors. Our findings reveal that the nuances in PBC's communication have had a pronounced impact on the allocation of international capital, with significant shifts observed during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The research demonstrates how subtle changes in communicated topics, ranging from inflation and regulation to macroeconomic uncertainties, resonate with and redirect global investor sentiments and strategies. This study underscores the critical role of the PBC in China's open economy during crises and the broader impact of central bank communications on the global financial system, providing essential insights for policymakers and investors navigating international capital flows in times of crisis.

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政策话语的力量：中国人民银行的沟通及其对全球危机中资本流动的影响

本文探讨了中国人民银行（PBC）货币政策沟通在塑造国际资本流动方面的战略作用，特别是在经济不确定和危机时期。通过开发和应用一种新颖的半监督机器学习方法来分析中国人民银行政策公告的内容，我们提取了对全球投资行为产生重大影响的主题见解。我们的研究结果表明，中国人民银行沟通的细微差别对国际资本配置产生了显著影响，在2008年全球金融危机和2019冠状病毒病大流行期间发生了重大变化。研究表明，从通货膨胀和监管到宏观经济的不确定性，交流话题的微妙变化如何与全球投资者的情绪和策略产生共鸣并改变其方向。本研究强调了中国人民银行在危机期间在中国开放经济中的关键作用，以及央行沟通对全球金融体系的更广泛影响，为政策制定者和投资者在危机时期引导国际资本流动提供了重要见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

4.40%

发文量

380

期刊介绍： The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.