Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of Arctic shipping black carbon emissions based on AIS data 2016 to 2022

IF 4.9 3区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Marine pollution bulletin Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118318

Xinli Qi , Zhenfu Li , Shiyue Li , Chunrui Song , Yutao Zhou , Jiaqi Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The rapid expansion of Arctic shipping has heightened concerns regarding its environmental impact, particularly the climate and ecological effects of black carbon (BC) emissions. Accurate quantification and a comprehensive understanding of Arctic shipping BC emission trends are essential for formulating effective mitigation policies. This study utilizes Automatic Identification System (AIS) trajectory data from 2016 to 2022 and applies a bottom-up approach to refine BC emission estimates from Arctic shipping. The analysis covers emissions across various operational states, 14 ship types, different fuel categories, and spatial distribution patterns, and predicts the 2030 and 2050 emission trends of 40 types under the global shipping shift and global route not shifted assumptions. The results show that from 2016 to 2022, the total BC emissions from Arctic shipping increased from 278.97 tons to 499.42 tons, an increase of 79.02 %. At the same time, the emissions showed obvious seasonal characteristics, with the highest emissions in summer (June to August) and the annual peak in August. In addition, Gas tankers、Fishing vessels、Cruise ships、Crude Oil tankers、Passenger ships and Bulk carriers are the six types of ships with the largest emissions (accounting for 81.29 % in 2022). From the perspective of spatial distribution, BC emissions are mainly concentrated in key shipping areas such as the Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea, and Davis Strait, and the scope shows a trend of expansion year by year. Furthermore, the emission forecast results show that if the “HFO (Heavy fuel oil) Ban” is implemented and the fuel is switched to MGO/MDO (Marine gas oils/Marine diesel oil), Arctic shipping BC emissions are expected to be 476.82–9157.25 tons in 2050. However, if cleaner fuels (such as liquefied natural gas LNG) are used, BC emissions can be significantly reduced, which is expected to be an effective path to achieve emission reduction targets. Finally, the model test results show that if the omission of ships in AIS data is taken into account, the total BC emissions in the Arctic can reach 1.54–1.95 times the estimated value, and fishing vessels are the main source of uncertainty.

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2016 - 2022年基于AIS数据的北极航运黑碳排放时空演变与预测

北极航运的迅速扩张加剧了人们对其环境影响的担忧，特别是黑碳（BC）排放对气候和生态的影响。准确量化和全面了解北极航运BC排放趋势对于制定有效的减缓政策至关重要。本研究利用2016年至2022年的自动识别系统（AIS）轨迹数据，并采用自下而上的方法来完善北极航运的BC排放估算。该分析涵盖了不同运营状态、14种船型、不同燃料类别和空间分布模式的排放，并预测了全球航运转移和全球航线未转移假设下40种类型的2030年和2050年排放趋势。结果表明，从2016年到2022年，北极航运的BC总排放量从278.97吨增加到499.42吨，增长了79.02%。同时，排放量具有明显的季节特征，夏季（6 ~ 8月）排放量最高，8月达到全年峰值。此外，天然气船、渔船、游轮、原油船、客船和散货船是排放量最大的六种船舶（2022年占81.29%）。从空间分布上看，BC排放主要集中在巴伦支海、喀拉海、白令海、楚科奇海、戴维斯海峡等重点航运区域，且范围呈逐年扩大趋势。此外，排放预测结果表明，如果实施“HFO（重质燃料油）禁令”，燃料改用MGO/MDO（船用燃料油/船用柴油），2050年北极航运BC排放量预计为476.82-9157.25吨。然而，如果使用更清洁的燃料（如液化天然气LNG），则可以显著减少BC的排放，有望成为实现减排目标的有效途径。最后，模型试验结果表明，如果考虑AIS数据中船舶的遗漏，北极地区的BC总排放量可达到估估值的1.54-1.95倍，渔船是不确定性的主要来源。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Marine pollution bulletin 环境科学-海洋与淡水生物学

CiteScore

10.20

自引率

15.50%

发文量

1077

审稿时长

68 days

期刊介绍： Marine Pollution Bulletin is concerned with the rational use of maritime and marine resources in estuaries, the seas and oceans, as well as with documenting marine pollution and introducing new forms of measurement and analysis. A wide range of topics are discussed as news, comment, reviews and research reports, not only on effluent disposal and pollution control, but also on the management, economic aspects and protection of the marine environment in general.