{"title":"The impact of hot nights on dengue incidence: a nationwide case crossover study in Brazil.","authors":"Mintao Su, Junjun Chen, Zhisheng Liang, Qinfeng Zhou, Junxiong Ma, Huining Yang, Shaym Biswal, Murugappan Ramanathan, Haojun Fan, Fan Dai, Wei Huang, Minghui Ren, Zhenyu Zhang","doi":"10.1186/s40249-025-01326-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease, is influenced by temperature. As global warming intensifies, the frequency of hot nights has increased. However, the relationship between hot nights and dengue transmission remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of hot night exposures on dengue incidence.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collected individual dengue data from Brazil's SINAN database (2014-2021), covering 5,708,691 patients. Hot night exposures, including the average maximum nighttime temperatures, hot night excess, and hot night duration, were calculated using the ERA5-land dataset. A case-crossover design was employed to assess the association between each hot night exposure and dengue incidence using conditional logistic regression.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The average maximum nighttime temperature, hot night excess, and hot night duration were all significantly associated with increased risk of dengue, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.86 (95% CI 1.86-1.87), 1.01 (95% CI 1.01-1.01), and 1.05 (95% CI 1.05-1.05), respectively. The attributable risks for each hot night exposure were 14.02% (95% CI 13.49%-14.60%), 27.80% (95% CI 27.33%-28.21%), and 26.95% (95% CI 26.58%-27.38%), respectively, when the exposure value was above the 90th percentile of its distribution.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Hot night exposures were associated with an increased risk of dengue in Brazil. The public health burden of dengue is likely to rise with increasing hot night exposures, especially as hot nights become more frequent worldwide. Implementation of targeted vector control strategies and improved access to cooling equipment, such as air-conditioning, may serve as important mitigation measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":48820,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","volume":"14 1","pages":"50"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12168315/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-025-01326-4","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Background: Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease, is influenced by temperature. As global warming intensifies, the frequency of hot nights has increased. However, the relationship between hot nights and dengue transmission remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of hot night exposures on dengue incidence.
Methods: We collected individual dengue data from Brazil's SINAN database (2014-2021), covering 5,708,691 patients. Hot night exposures, including the average maximum nighttime temperatures, hot night excess, and hot night duration, were calculated using the ERA5-land dataset. A case-crossover design was employed to assess the association between each hot night exposure and dengue incidence using conditional logistic regression.
Results: The average maximum nighttime temperature, hot night excess, and hot night duration were all significantly associated with increased risk of dengue, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.86 (95% CI 1.86-1.87), 1.01 (95% CI 1.01-1.01), and 1.05 (95% CI 1.05-1.05), respectively. The attributable risks for each hot night exposure were 14.02% (95% CI 13.49%-14.60%), 27.80% (95% CI 27.33%-28.21%), and 26.95% (95% CI 26.58%-27.38%), respectively, when the exposure value was above the 90th percentile of its distribution.
Conclusions: Hot night exposures were associated with an increased risk of dengue in Brazil. The public health burden of dengue is likely to rise with increasing hot night exposures, especially as hot nights become more frequent worldwide. Implementation of targeted vector control strategies and improved access to cooling equipment, such as air-conditioning, may serve as important mitigation measures.
背景：登革热是一种受温度影响的蚊媒疾病。随着全球变暖的加剧，热夜的频率增加了。然而，热夜与登革热传播之间的关系仍不清楚。本研究旨在评估热夜暴露对登革热发病率的影响。方法：我们从巴西SINAN数据库（2014-2021）收集登革热个体数据，涵盖5,708,691例患者。热夜暴露，包括平均最高夜间温度、热夜过量和热夜持续时间，使用ERA5-land数据集进行计算。采用病例交叉设计，采用条件logistic回归评估每次热夜暴露与登革热发病率之间的关系。结果：平均最高夜间温度、热夜过量和热夜持续时间均与登革热风险增加显著相关，比值比（or）分别为1.86 （95% CI 1.86-1.87）、1.01 （95% CI 1.01-1.01）和1.05 （95% CI 1.05-1.05）。当暴露值高于其分布的第90百分位时，每次热夜暴露的归因风险分别为14.02% （95% CI 13.49%-14.60%）、27.80% （95% CI 27.33%-28.21%）和26.95% （95% CI 26.58%-27.38%）。结论：热夜暴露与巴西登革热风险增加有关。登革热的公共卫生负担可能会随着炎热夜晚的增加而增加，特别是在全球炎热夜晚变得更加频繁的情况下。实施有针对性的病媒控制战略和改善空调等冷却设备的使用，可作为重要的缓解措施。
期刊介绍：
Infectious Diseases of Poverty is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that focuses on addressing essential public health questions related to infectious diseases of poverty. The journal covers a wide range of topics including the biology of pathogens and vectors, diagnosis and detection, treatment and case management, epidemiology and modeling, zoonotic hosts and animal reservoirs, control strategies and implementation, new technologies and application. It also considers the transdisciplinary or multisectoral effects on health systems, ecohealth, environmental management, and innovative technology. The journal aims to identify and assess research and information gaps that hinder progress towards new interventions for public health problems in the developing world. Additionally, it provides a platform for discussing these issues to advance research and evidence building for improved public health interventions in poor settings.
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