Long-Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036)

IF 2.9 2区医学 Q2 ONCOLOGY

Cancer Medicine Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI:10.1002/cam4.70999

Huiqiang Wu, Zhiyin Cai, Wanyi Liu, Zechuan Wang, Baoying Qiu, Weihui Liu, Weihuang Zhuang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England, and France) to understand country differences and factors.

Methods

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was utilised to analyse the incidence and mortality trends of MM from 1990 to 2021. An age-period-cohort model was employed to evaluate the disparities among nations, while an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast the impending developments over the subsequent 15 years.

Results

The study found the burden of MM continues to increase in China and the Russian Federation, with significant increases particularly in older age groups. In the United States of America, age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised death rates (ASDR) showed a downward trend, reflecting a reduction in the burden of disease. In England and France, ASIR increased overall, but ASDR remained stable. The burden of MM was found to be significantly correlated with age, period effect, and birth cohort through age-period-cohort analysis. The ARIMA model predictions indicated an increasing trend in ASIR and a stable ASDR in China and the Russian Federation, while in England, France, and the United States of America, there was an overall stabilisation of ASIR and ASDR.

Conclusions

Significant differences in the burden of MM were found among the five countries. China and the Russian Federation are facing an increasing MM burden, particularly in older age groups, while the United States of America, England and France have made progress through early screening and treatment. The study suggests focusing on older populations, promoting early diagnosis and personalised treatment, and addressing lifestyle and environmental factors. Future research should examine risk factors across countries to inform public health policy.

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三大洲多发性骨髓瘤的长期趋势和预测：中国、美国、俄罗斯联邦、英国和法国的比较研究（1990-2036）

本研究的目的是分析联合国安理会五个常任理事国（中国、美利坚合众国、俄罗斯联邦、英国和法国）多发性骨髓瘤（MM）负担的趋势，以了解国家差异和因素。方法利用《2021年全球疾病负担研究》，分析1990 - 2021年MM的发病率和死亡率趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型评估国家间的差异，采用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测未来15年的发展趋势。结果研究发现，MM的负担在中国和俄罗斯联邦持续增加，特别是在老年群体中显著增加。在美利坚合众国，年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）呈现下降趋势，反映出疾病负担的减轻。在英国和法国，ASIR总体上升，但ASDR保持稳定。通过年龄-时期-队列分析发现MM负担与年龄、时期效应和出生队列显著相关。ARIMA模型预测表明，中国和俄罗斯联邦的ASIR和ASDR呈增加趋势，而英国、法国和美利坚合众国的ASIR和ASDR总体稳定。结论5个国家MM负担存在显著差异。中国和俄罗斯联邦正面临日益增加的MM负担，特别是在老年群体中，而美利坚合众国、英国和法国通过早期筛查和治疗取得了进展。该研究建议关注老年人，促进早期诊断和个性化治疗，并解决生活方式和环境因素。未来的研究应检查各国的风险因素，为公共卫生政策提供信息。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Cancer Medicine ONCOLOGY-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

2.50%

发文量

907

审稿时长

19 weeks

期刊介绍： Cancer Medicine is a peer-reviewed, open access, interdisciplinary journal providing rapid publication of research from global biomedical researchers across the cancer sciences. The journal will consider submissions from all oncologic specialties, including, but not limited to, the following areas: Clinical Cancer Research Translational research ∙ clinical trials ∙ chemotherapy ∙ radiation therapy ∙ surgical therapy ∙ clinical observations ∙ clinical guidelines ∙ genetic consultation ∙ ethical considerations Cancer Biology: Molecular biology ∙ cellular biology ∙ molecular genetics ∙ genomics ∙ immunology ∙ epigenetics ∙ metabolic studies ∙ proteomics ∙ cytopathology ∙ carcinogenesis ∙ drug discovery and delivery. Cancer Prevention: Behavioral science ∙ psychosocial studies ∙ screening ∙ nutrition ∙ epidemiology and prevention ∙ community outreach. Bioinformatics: Gene expressions profiles ∙ gene regulation networks ∙ genome bioinformatics ∙ pathwayanalysis ∙ prognostic biomarkers. Cancer Medicine publishes original research articles, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and research methods papers, along with invited editorials and commentaries. Original research papers must report well-conducted research with conclusions supported by the data presented in the paper.