Generational evolution and spatial distribution characteristics of ports along the belt and road initiative

Abstract

Ports serve as essential nodes in global trade and economic development, offering valuable insights into both historical transformations and contemporary advancements. This study develops a port generational model using the latitude average clustering algorithm to systematically examine the evolution of investment ports along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from 2013 to 2022. Key findings include: (1) A general improvement in the generational levels of ports along the BRI, with rapid development expanding from East Asia and Southeast Asia in 2013 to encompass regions such as the Persian Gulf, Eastern Europe, and West Africa by 2022. (2) The generational distribution of ports along the BRI shows a random spatial pattern rather than significant geographical clustering. BRI investments strategically manage regional risks by acquiring resources, technology, and market opportunities across different areas, aligning with China's domestic industrial and market needs, and supporting global trade objectives. (3) Ports with robust development are primarily located in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Europe, while those in decline are mainly spread across Africa, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. (4) In terms of investment approaches, contracted ports demonstrate stronger generational advancement in the first and second generations, whereas operated ports excel in the third generation and above. (5) A comparative analysis of BRI ports and surrounding ports shows that BRI investments not only elevate the development levels of the ports themselves but also positively influence the progress of nearby ports, without fostering competitive tensions.