Water quality prediction based on different kinds of water consumption in urban areas in China

Abstract

At present, water environment pollution has become one of the most serious problems which threatens human life, health, and water resources. It is important to accurately predict the water quality status for the sustainable development and management of water resources. For the characteristics of water quality research with little data, grey model is chosen as a research tool. In this paper, a grey multivariate model with fractional order new information priority combination cumulative is proposed. The grey correlation analysis was firstly used to analyze the extent to which the water quality index of 16 cities in Anhui Province was affected by four different kinds of water consumption. Then, the proposed model was used to predict the water quality index of each city. The results show that 93.75 % of the cities believe that agricultural water consumption has a significant impact on water quality index, and 81.25 % of the cities believe that industrial water consumption has a significant impact on water quality index. Only 6.25 % and 1.25 % of the cities believed that domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption had a significant impact on water quality index. In addition, the improved model can greatly improve the prediction accuracy. In the future six years, the water quality index of 10 cities shows a decreasing trend, and the water quality index of 6 cities shows an increasing trend in Anhui Province. The results of the research provide a basis for the establishment of policies related to the sustainable development management of the regional water environment and help the construction of beautiful China.