Financial distress likelihood of European SMEs in times of economic policy uncertainty: The role of family ownership and performance aspirations

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI:10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104418

Fadi Hawach , Ignacio Requejo

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Abstract

This work examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and financial distress likelihood (FDL) in a panel of 145,611 European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) over a ten-year period (2012−2021). Our analysis reveals a positive link between EPU and financial distress, which indicates that heightened uncertainty increases the likelihood of financial distress for SMEs. In addition, the study explores the moderating impact of family ownership and documents that family-owned SMEs are more resilient to increasing EPU. Interestingly, family firms performing below aspirations show greater resilience to EPU, resulting in a lower likelihood of financial distress. These findings offer new insights into the challenges faced by SMEs during periods of economic uncertainty and emphasize the protective role of family ownership. Our results have important implications for SME managers, family business owners, and policymakers by highlighting the need for tailored strategies to support SME survival during volatile times.

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经济政策不确定时期欧洲中小企业财务困境的可能性：家族所有权和绩效愿望的作用

本研究对145,611家欧洲中小企业（sme）在十年期间（2012 - 2021年）的经济政策不确定性（EPU）与财务困境可能性（FDL）之间的关系进行了研究。我们的分析揭示了EPU与财务困境之间的正相关关系，这表明不确定性的增加增加了中小企业财务困境的可能性。此外，本研究还探讨了家族所有权的调节作用，并证明家族所有的中小企业对EPU的增加更有弹性。有趣的是，业绩低于预期的家族企业对EPU表现出更大的弹性，从而导致财务困境的可能性更低。这些发现为中小企业在经济不确定时期面临的挑战提供了新的见解，并强调了家族所有权的保护作用。我们的研究结果对中小企业管理者、家族企业主和政策制定者具有重要意义，因为它强调了在动荡时期支持中小企业生存的量身定制战略的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Review of Financial Analysis BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.80%

发文量

366

期刊介绍： The International Review of Financial Analysis (IRFA) is an impartial refereed journal designed to serve as a platform for high-quality financial research. It welcomes a diverse range of financial research topics and maintains an unbiased selection process. While not limited to U.S.-centric subjects, IRFA, as its title suggests, is open to valuable research contributions from around the world.