Future precipitation extremes and urban flood risk assessment using a non-stationary and convection-permitting climate-hydrodynamic modeling framework

Abstract

Urban planners and engineers rely on historical climate data to plan and design flood protection infrastructure that should withstand extreme flooding events with 1% annual exceedance probability (the 100-year flood). Here, we examine how hourly precipitation extremes are expected to change as temperatures rise and how this will affect urban flooding. The changes to short-duration rainfall extremes, often insufficiently considered in practice, are addressed utilizing a new temperature conditional extreme precipitation scaling approach and a novel regional climate convection-permitting model ensemble for +2 °C and +3 °C global warming scenarios. Based on hydrodynamic modeling, we estimate how future precipitation extremes translate into flood risks in two pre-alpine communes in Germany. Ignoring the impacts of climate change may lead to severe underestimations of flood risks. The +3 °C global warming scenario translates into an increase of 60% of affected buildings by the highest flood risk category (water level of 1 m and above). The increase in flow intensities will be greater in the commune characterized by steeper terrain. The results suggest that recently planned or implemented infrastructure projects may not be adequately equipped to cope with the anticipated effects of climate change in the coming decades.