Ecological Niche and Potential Geographic Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Northeast Argentina.

Abstract

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are the primary vectors of arboviruses in Argentina, with increasing importance in Northeastern Argentina (NEA). This study used ecological niche modeling (MaxEnt) to estimate the potential geographic distribution of both species in NEA, integrating bioclimatic, land cover, and sociodemographic variables such as population density and urban accessibility. Occurrence data were compiled from global databases and literature, and model calibration was based on variable selection, spatial filtering, and cross-validation. Results indicate a broader potential distribution for Ae. albopictus compared to Ae. aegypti, particularly in under-sampled areas of Misiones and Corrientes. Urban accessibility emerged as the most influential predictor for both species, with models combining environmental and sociodemographic variables outperforming climate-only models (AUC > 0.84). Binary habitat suitability maps showed marked differences between models, underscoring the importance of human-driven factors. These findings support the use of integrative modeling approaches to better anticipate vector expansion and prioritize surveillance. The study provides critical information to guide vector control programs and reduce the risk of arbovirus transmission, especially in densely populated and highly connected areas.