[Epidemiological dynamics and spatiotemporal diffusion trend of brucellosis in China from 2010 to 2024].

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the epidemiological dynamics and spatiotemporal diffusion trend of brucellosis in China from 2010 to 2024. Methods: Data on reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2024, were collected via the"China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention", including detailed information on the date of onset, gender, age, occupation, and residential address of the cases. The Joinpoint regression and spatial interpolation techniques were used to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and population distribution characteristics of human brucellosis in pastoral/semi-pastoral areas and other regions, as well as urban and rural areas, and explore the epidemic trends of the disease. Results: From 2010 to 2024, pastoral/semi-pastoral regions reported 252 094 brucellosis cases, with a mean annual incidence rate of 36.57±7.28 per 100 000. In contrast, other regions cumulatively recorded 519 748 cases during the same period, demonstrating a significantly lower mean annual incidence rate of 2.54±0.74 per 100 000. The incidence rate of human brucellosis in pastoral/semi-pastoral regions exhibited a declining-rebounding-declining trend. Specifically, the incidence rate decreased significantly from 2010 to 2017 (APC=-7.20; P<0.001) and increased notably from 2017 to 2021 (APC=18.00; P=0.015) with a decline again from 2021 to 2024 (APC=-7.53; P=0.027). In other regions, the incidence rate showed a fluctuating upward trend. Specifically, the incidence rate increased significantly from 2010 to 2015 (APC=20.37; P<0.001) and decreased notably from 2015 to 2018 (APC=-21.78; P<0.001), followed by an increase again from 2018 to 2024, a significant upward trend in incidence rate from 2018 to 2021 (APC=26.73; P<0.001) and a non-significant decline from 2021 to 2024 (APC=-0.99; P=0.735), resulting in the maintenance of a relatively high incidence level. Rural areas demonstrated significantly higher brucellosis incidence rates than urban settings (all P<0.001). Brucellosis exhibited a diffusion trend from the northern epidemic areas of China to neighboring regions, along with sporadic diffusion in southern regions between 2010 and 2024. The age structure of patients in pastoral/semi-pastoral areas differed significantly from that in other regions. Specifically, in pastoral/semi-pastoral areas, the incidence rate was higher among the 35-49 age groups, while in other regions, the incidence rate was higher among those aged 55-64. Conclusion: There are notable disparities in the incidence of human brucellosis between pastoral/semi-pastoral areas and other regions in China. Human brucellosis exhibits a diffusion trend from the northern epidemic areas of China to neighboring regions, along with sporadic diffusion in southern regions.