A nomogram for one-year risk of death after hip fracture.

IF 3.1 3区医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

Frontiers in Medicine Pub Date : 2025-05-30 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.3389/fmed.2025.1500049

Jiale Guo, Liuyang Shi, Kehai Shi, Ru Dai, Jian Wang, Yehai Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Hip fractures are catastrophic events with a significant risk of mortality, making early identification of high-risk patients crucial. While previous studies have primarily focused on post-surgical mortality in hip fracture patients, less attention has been given to those who did not undergo surgery. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict 1-year mortality in older adults following hip fractures.

Methods: Patients hospitalized with hip fractures at a university hospital between May 2016 and December 2021 were included. Participants were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (70:30 ratio). After selecting key variables, the nomogram was constructed, and its performance was evaluated in both cohorts.

Results: A total of 619 patients were included, with 136 (21.97%) experiencing mortality within one year. LASSO regression was used to account for multicollinearity, selecting variables such as age, coronary heart disease, surgery, hemoglobin, aspartate transaminase, and blood urea nitrogen. The nomogram achieved AUCs of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, demonstrating excellent calibration and clinical utility.

Conclusion: The nomogram effectively predict 1-year mortality risk in older adults following hip fractures.

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髋部骨折后一年死亡风险的图。

背景：髋部骨折是具有重大死亡风险的灾难性事件，因此早期识别高危患者至关重要。虽然以前的研究主要关注髋部骨折患者的术后死亡率，但对未接受手术的患者的关注较少。本研究旨在开发一种预测老年人髋部骨折后1年死亡率的nomogram方法。方法：纳入2016年5月至2021年12月在某大学医院住院的髋部骨折患者。参与者随机分为训练组和验证组（70:30）。选择关键变量后，构建nomogram，并在两个队列中对其性能进行评价。结果：共纳入619例患者，其中136例（21.97%）在1年内死亡。使用LASSO回归来解释多重共线性，选择诸如年龄、冠心病、手术、血红蛋白、天冬氨酸转氨酶和血尿素氮等变量。在训练组和验证组中，nomogram auc分别为0.83 （95% CI: 0.78-0.88）和0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89)，证明了良好的校准和临床应用。结论：nomogram可有效预测老年人髋部骨折后1年死亡风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Frontiers in Medicine Medicine-General Medicine

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

5.10%

发文量

3710

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Frontiers in Medicine publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research linking basic research to clinical practice and patient care, as well as translating scientific advances into new therapies and diagnostic tools. Led by an outstanding Editorial Board of international experts, this multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, clinicians and the public worldwide. In addition to papers that provide a link between basic research and clinical practice, a particular emphasis is given to studies that are directly relevant to patient care. In this spirit, the journal publishes the latest research results and medical knowledge that facilitate the translation of scientific advances into new therapies or diagnostic tools. The full listing of the Specialty Sections represented by Frontiers in Medicine is as listed below. As well as the established medical disciplines, Frontiers in Medicine is launching new sections that together will facilitate - the use of patient-reported outcomes under real world conditions - the exploitation of big data and the use of novel information and communication tools in the assessment of new medicines - the scientific bases for guidelines and decisions from regulatory authorities - access to medicinal products and medical devices worldwide - addressing the grand health challenges around the world