The impact of urbanization on regional carbon sequestration in arid areas: A case study of Altay Region, Xinjiang, China

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113755

Jiaquan Wan , Tao Bai , Yongbin Ye , Peipei Shen , Fangqin Wang , Peixing Chen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Scientifically exploring the spatiotemporal variation patterns of carbon storage and accurately identifying its major influencing factors hold practical significance for China to achieve the “dual carbon” goals of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. In ecologically fragile arid inland areas, multiple factors during the urbanization process drive the evolution of ecosystems, which in turn leads to changes in carbon storage. This study focuses on the arid region of Altay in northern Xinjiang and innovatively proposes a carbon storage analysis method based on multiple influencing factors, aiming to investigate the patterns of carbon storage variation under the combined effects of various elements. The results show that: (1) Over the past four decades, land-use type changes in the study area have exhibited distinct spatiotemporal differentiation. Prior to 2005, grasslands in the southern part of the study area were patchy and scattered; by 2020, the grassland area in the northern region had increased, while that in the southern region had nearly disappeared. Land-use changes mainly involved the conversion of forests and unutilized land into grasslands, cropland, built-up land, and water bodies. (2) The carbon storage change pattern in the study area can be divided into two phases, showing an overall declining trend. The year with the highest carbon storage was 1980, with a total of 689.99 million tons, while the lowest was 2010, with a total of 661.23 million tons. (3) The regression model passed the collinearity test, and the ridge regression results showed that all explanatory variable coefficients were significant at the 5% level, indicating that the fitted equation is reasonable. The influencing factors of carbon sequestration, ranked from greatest to least impact, are: the proportion of the primary industry in GDP, urbanization rate, CO₂ emissions, cropland area, energy intensity, per capita GDP, and temperature.

Synopsis

Clarifying the impacts of various influencing factors during the urbanization process on carbon sequestration in dryland cities.

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干旱区城市化对区域碳固存的影响——以新疆阿勒泰地区为例

科学探索碳储量的时空变化规律，准确识别其主要影响因素，对中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值和2060年实现碳中和的“双碳”目标具有现实意义。在生态脆弱的干旱内陆地区，城市化进程中的多种因素驱动着生态系统的演变，进而导致碳储量的变化。本研究以新疆北部阿勒泰干旱区为研究对象，创新性地提出了一种基于多影响因素的碳储量分析方法，旨在探讨多种因素共同作用下的碳储量变化规律。结果表明：①近40 a来，研究区土地利用类型变化呈现出明显的时空分异特征；2005年以前，研究区南部草原呈斑块状、零散分布；到2020年，北方草原面积有所增加，而南方草原面积几乎消失。土地利用变化主要包括森林和未利用地向草地、耕地、建设用地和水体的转变。(2)研究区碳储量变化格局可分为两个阶段，总体呈下降趋势。碳储量最高的年份是1980年，总量为6.8999亿吨；最低的年份是2010年，总量为6.6123亿吨。(3)回归模型通过共线性检验，岭回归结果显示，所有解释变量系数在5%水平下均显著，说明拟合方程合理。影响固碳的因素从大到小依次为：第一产业占GDP的比重、城镇化率、CO2排放量、耕地面积、能源强度、人均GDP、温度。摘要厘清城市化进程中各种影响因素对旱地城市固碳的影响。

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来源期刊

Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

8.70%

发文量

1163

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.