Probabilistic ambiguity, outcome ambiguity or both: Does it matter for the decision-maker?

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI:10.1016/j.socec.2025.102390

Marielle Brunette , Stéphane Couture , Kene Boun My

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Decisions under ambiguity are an integral part of the daily life of economic decision-makers. However, if ambiguity bears on the probability, on the outcome, or on both, making a decision then becomes non-trivial and the source of ambiguity can have a major impact on the decision. In this paper, we study how decision-makers react to these different sources of ambiguity. For that purpose, we implemented a lab experiment with 209 students. We found that decision-makers prefer risk over different sources of ambiguity. They also prefer outcome ambiguity to probabilistic ambiguity and double ambiguity. Interestingly, when ambiguity exists in both the outcome and probability, subjects prefer double ambiguity to probabilistic ambiguity.

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概率模糊性、结果模糊性或两者兼而有之：这对决策者有影响吗？

模糊决策是经济决策者日常生活中不可缺少的一部分。然而，如果模糊性对概率、结果或两者都有影响，那么做出决策就变得非常重要，模糊性的来源可能对决策产生重大影响。在本文中，我们研究了决策者如何应对这些不同的歧义来源。为此，我们对209名学生进行了一个实验室实验。我们发现决策者更喜欢风险而不是不同来源的模糊性。与概率模糊和双重模糊相比，他们更喜欢结果模糊。有趣的是，当结果和概率同时存在歧义时，被试更倾向于双重歧义而非概率歧义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

113

审稿时长

83 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly the Journal of Socio-Economics) welcomes submissions that deal with various economic topics but also involve issues that are related to other social sciences, especially psychology, or use experimental methods of inquiry. Thus, contributions in behavioral economics, experimental economics, economic psychology, and judgment and decision making are especially welcome. The journal is open to different research methodologies, as long as they are relevant to the topic and employed rigorously. Possible methodologies include, for example, experiments, surveys, empirical work, theoretical models, meta-analyses, case studies, and simulation-based analyses. Literature reviews that integrate findings from many studies are also welcome, but they should synthesize the literature in a useful manner and provide substantial contribution beyond what the reader could get by simply reading the abstracts of the cited papers. In empirical work, it is important that the results are not only statistically significant but also economically significant. A high contribution-to-length ratio is expected from published articles and therefore papers should not be unnecessarily long, and short articles are welcome. Articles should be written in a manner that is intelligible to our generalist readership. Book reviews are generally solicited but occasionally unsolicited reviews will also be published. Contact the Book Review Editor for related inquiries.