Neoliberalism and labor's long decline: Financialization, precaritization, and union density in the American states, 1964–2023

Abstract

Despite encouraging efforts at union revitalization, the long-term decline of union density in the U.S. continues. In this paper, we examine the influence of two master processes of neoliberal capitalism contributing to that decline that have received insufficient attention in previous research—the financialization of the economy and precaritization of work. Using longitudinal data for the 50 U.S. states for 1964–2023, we conduct a state-level analysis and find that both financialization and precaritization negatively affect union density net of other covariates. Consistent with our expectations, we further find that these effects are historically and regionally contingent. That is, the negative effects of financialization and precaritization are confined mainly to the neoliberal period (1981–2023) and to Non-southern states. We further find that these effects of financialization and precaritization on union density differed before, during, and after the Great Recession, suggesting that the Recession had a disruptive influence on these relationships. We discuss the relevance of these findings for the future vibrancy of the union movement.