A long-term energy transition planning model for a district heating and cooling sector incorporating sector coupling approach: A case study of the Czech district heating and cooling sector

Abstract

The decarbonisation of the district heating and cooling sector is a key component of Europe’s path to climate neutrality, particularly in countries with coal-dominated heat generation. This study addresses the challenge of planning the optimal transformation of the sector under multiple technical, environmental, and policy constraints. A novel linear programming-based optimisation model is proposed, combining national-scale planning with comprehensive coverage of technologies and fuels, binding legislative targets, and an explicit representation of sector coupling between the district heating and cooling sector and the power sector. This modelling approach makes it possible to explore whether flexible sector coupling technologies can effectively support both heat sector decarbonisation and electricity system flexibility under realistic policy and technical conditions, while remaining cost-effective. The model is applied to the Czech Republic as a representative case of a fossil-fuel-dependent country. Results show that by 2030, approximately 5 562 MW_t of gas-fired combined heat and power capacity is expected to be developed, covering 51% of total heat demand, contributing an additional 11 TWh of electricity to the day-ahead market, and quadrupling the volume of balancing reserves provided compared to 2025. The results highlight risks of rapid scale-up, especially regarding permitting, investment, and supply chain conditions. Power-to-Heat technologies contribute by increasing electricity consumption on the day-ahead market by 1.9 TWh and quadrupling the volume of balancing reserves provided by 2050, while satisfying 4.3 TWh_t of heat demand. The results confirm that flexible sector coupling technologies form the backbone of the most economically efficient transition pathway.