Widening cost-benefits gap of emission control measures in India from 2017 to 2022

Abstract

The Indian government has implemented stricter emission reduction policies to alleviate pollution in recent years, though their impact on air quality remains uncertain. This study uses the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations in India from 2017 to 2022, assessing the response of pollutant emissions and evaluating effects on air quality and public health. We assess the total costs of emission reduction policies and potential lives saved through improved air quality, providing a preliminary estimate of policy effectiveness. While emissions of SO₂, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and black carbon declined, emissions of NH₃, VOC, and organic carbon increased, with CO and NOx remaining stable. The total cost of emission reductions increased from $31.9 billion in 2017 to $47.4 billion in 2022, with NO_x reductions accounting for over 70 % of the total. Despite these efforts, PM_2.5 and maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) O₃ concentrations generally rose in most years, showing a synchronized pattern. This contributed to an increase in premature deaths, from 2.1 million to 2.4 million, with cardiovascular diseases due to PM_2.5 exposure accounting for over 40 % of these deaths. The increasing costs of emission reductions, excluding a brief decline in 2020, led to negative health benefits and a widening cost-benefit gap. By 2022, net benefits were recorded at -$126.7 billion, marking a 14 % decrease from 2018. These findings highlight the need for future policies to improve cost-effectiveness and maximize health benefits for sustainable air quality improvements.