The grass is always greener on the other side: Transnational ethnic inequality and ethno-nationalist conflict

Abstract

Existing research has shown that horizontal inequalities arising from comparisons between ethnic groups can promote ethno-nationalist conflict. However, these studies have largely focused on comparison between groups within the same country. In this article, we extend this perspective and study comparisons with kin groups abroad and how they affect the risk of ethnic civil war. In particular, we address the fact that many groups have several kin groups abroad, all of which could serve as reference points for comparison. Drawing on insights from social psychology, we argue that the comparisons made with different groups involve distinct motivations, which can yield varying degrees of stimulus related to the outbreak of ethno-nationalist conflict. Our results suggest that comparisons with kin groups abroad – especially the best (most well-off) groups, as well as the nearest or median groups – are salient in increasing the propensity for conflict incidence. Moreover, groups that are relatively well-off and thus prone to downward comparisons, especially when the group is wealthier than all of its transnational kin groups, are much less likely to fight. A novel finding emerges: relative poverty in comparison with transnational kin does not appear to exacerbate the potential for conflict, but relative wealth does appear to attenuate it.