Estimating the health impact of menu calorie labelling policy and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in two European countries: a microsimulation study.

Abstract

Aims: To estimate and compare the impacts of menu calorie labelling and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation on reducing obesity prevalence, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and equity-related impacts, in Belgium and Germany.

Methods: We used microsimulation models over a 20-year simulation horizon (2022-2041). We modelled the impacts through assumed changes in energy intake due to consumer responses and food industry reformulation. Scenarios of partial (in "large" out-of-home businesses; ≥ 250 employees) and full (in all out-of-home businesses) implementation for menu calorie labelling and different tax rates for SSBs (10%, 20%, 30%) were simulated.

Results: Compared to the counterfactual scenario, assuming effects on both consumer and industry behaviour, menu calorie labelling applied to all out-of-home businesses was estimated to reduce obesity prevalence by 3·61 (95% uncertainty interval-UI: [2·78, 4·30]) and 4·28 (95% UI: [3·64, 5·06]) percentage points and prevent 1600 (95% UI: [400, 3800]) and 30000 (95% UI: [10000, 58000]) CVD deaths in Belgium and Germany over 20 years, respectively. The 30% SSB tax was estimated to reduce obesity prevalence by 0·27 (95% UI: [0·17, 0·43]) and 0·27 (95% UI: [0·17, 0·39]) percentage points and postpone 2500 (95% UI: [800, 5200]) and 16000 (95% UI: [7500, 28000]) CVD deaths in Belgium and Germany, respectively. In both countries, SSB taxation had a larger impact on CVD deaths for lower (vs. higher) education groups, whereas calorie labelling prevented more CVD deaths for higher (vs. lower) education groups.

Conclusions: Menu calorie labelling and SSB taxation have substantial impacts on reducing obesity prevalence and preventing CVD deaths in Belgium and Germany. Implementing both policies will be important to tackle obesity and CVD burden.