Assessing Climate Change Impacts on the March 2024 Compound Floods and Saharan Dust Outbreak in Europe

IF 3.8 2区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Flavio Pons, Tommaso Alberti, Gabriele Messori, François Dulac, Davide Faranda
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study investigates whether and how climate change affected the compound extreme weather event that caused simultaneous floods in Portugal and an African dust outbreak across the Mediterranean region at the end of March 2024. The event was mainly driven by a large low pressure system located near Western Europe. We use circulation analogs to detect similar weather patterns and assess the possible influence of climate change on this event over the last 44 years. Our findings show that recent similar events are driven by deeper depressions than events further back in time, and follow a different seasonality. In terms of hazards, the more recent events are characterized by both heavier precipitation over the western Iberian Peninsula and larger transport of dust over the central-eastern Mediterranean, pointing to a role of climate change in intensifying the March 2024 event.

Abstract Image

评估气候变化对2024年3月欧洲复合洪水和撒哈拉沙尘爆发的影响
这项研究调查了气候变化是否以及如何影响复合极端天气事件,该事件在2024年3月底同时导致葡萄牙洪水和地中海地区非洲沙尘爆发。这次事件主要是由位于西欧附近的一个大型低压系统驱动的。我们使用环流类似物来检测类似的天气模式,并评估过去44年来气候变化对该事件的可能影响。我们的研究结果表明,最近的类似事件是由更深层次的萧条驱动的,而不是更早以前的事件,并且遵循不同的季节性。就危害而言,最近发生的事件的特点是,伊比利亚半岛西部的降水更强,地中海中东部的尘埃输送量更大,这表明气候变化在加剧2024年3月的事件中发挥了作用。
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来源期刊
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Earth and Planetary Sciences-Geophysics
CiteScore
7.30
自引率
11.40%
发文量
684
期刊介绍: JGR: Atmospheres publishes articles that advance and improve understanding of atmospheric properties and processes, including the interaction of the atmosphere with other components of the Earth system.
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