The Disease Burden of Asthma in China, 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2050: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021.

Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI:10.3967/bes2025.042

Rui Yi Zhang, Miao Miao Zhang, Yu Chang Zhou, Jia Huan Guo, Xuan Kai Wang, Mai Geng Zhou

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Abstract

Objective: Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change.

Results: In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma.

Conclusion: Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.

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1990 - 2021年中国哮喘疾病负担及2050年预测：基于2021年全球疾病负担

目的：哮喘造成了重大的全球健康负担。本研究考察了1990年至2021年哮喘相关疾病负担的变化，并在不同情景下预测了2050年的未来负担。方法：使用全球疾病负担2021研究的数据，我们分析了1990年至2021年哮喘发病率、患病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）。我们根据目前的趋势和所有风险因素都得到控制的假设情景，预测了2050年的疾病负担。使用年度百分比变化探讨年龄标准化发病率、患病率、死亡率和DALY率的时间趋势。结果：2021年，中国哮喘发病率、患病率、死亡率和DALYs的年龄标准化率分别为364.17 / 10万（95%不确定区间[UI]: 283.22-494.10）、1956.49 / 10万（95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87）、1.47 / 10万（95% UI: 1.15-1.79）和103.76 / 10万（95% UI: 72.50-145.46）。中国男性和70岁及以上人群的疾病负担较高。与目前的趋势相比，环境因素、行为和代谢健康、儿童营养和疫苗接种等方面的综合改善将大大减少哮喘引起的疾病负担。结论：解决可改变的危险因素对进一步减轻哮喘相关疾病负担至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES

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