Disease Burden and Trends of COPD in the Asia-Pacific Region (1990-2019) and Predictions to 2034.

Abstract

Objective: The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden, but studies on its trends are limited. Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034.

Methods: COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends, and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models.

Results: The incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing, and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories, except for a few Southeastern Asian countries. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034, respectively. Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group. The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen, though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one.

Conclusion: COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk, especially in countries with rising rates. Urgent action on tobacco control, air pollution, and public education is needed.