ENSO unleashed: Decoding energy consumption patterns across Nations

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100764

Alireza Olfati, Meysam Rafei , Siab Mamipour

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The intricate relationship between climate and energy consumption significantly impacts global sustainability and resilience. In this study, we address the critical gap in comprehensive research by examining the impact of El Niño and La Niña events on energy consumption across diverse nations. Our dynamic framework integrates 26 country/region-specific models estimated from historical data spanning 1979Q2 to 2023Q3. Employing the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, we analyze the dynamic responses of energy consumption to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks, accounting for regional variations. During ENSO episodes, discernible patterns emerge: El Niño leads to increased energy consumption in countries such as Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Japan, USA, and Saudi Arabia, while Argentina, Brazil, Chile, India, Mexico, and South Africa experience reduced energy consumption due to La Niña. The European region shows negligible effects. Our findings have direct implications for policymakers and energy stakeholders, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making during ENSO events. Economic, environmental, and energy security challenges underscore the need for proactive measures.

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释放ENSO：解码各国能源消费模式

气候与能源消耗之间错综复杂的关系显著影响着全球的可持续性和复原力。在本研究中，我们通过研究El Niño和La Niña事件对不同国家能源消耗的影响，解决了综合研究中的关键差距。我们的动态框架整合了26个特定国家/地区的模型，这些模型是根据1979年第二季度至2023年第三季度的历史数据估计的。利用全球向量自回归（GVAR）模型分析了能源消费对El Niño南方涛动（ENSO）冲击的动态响应，并考虑了区域差异。在ENSO事件期间，出现了可识别的模式：El Niño导致澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、中国、日本、美国和沙特阿拉伯等国家的能源消耗增加，而阿根廷、巴西、智利、印度、墨西哥和南非则由于La Niña而减少了能源消耗。欧洲地区的影响可以忽略不计。我们的研究结果对政策制定者和能源利益相关者具有直接意义，强调了在ENSO事件中知情决策的重要性。经济、环境和能源安全方面的挑战凸显了采取积极措施的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Futures Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science

CiteScore

9.30

自引率

1.80%

发文量

审稿时长

71 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Futures: is a journal focused on the intersection of sustainability, environment and technology from various disciplines in social sciences, and their larger implications for corporation, government, education institutions, regions and society both at present and in the future. It provides an advanced platform for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development in society, economics, environment, and culture. The scope of the journal is broad and encourages interdisciplinary research, as well as welcoming theoretical and practical research from all methodological approaches.