The impact of HPAI trade restrictions on U.S. poultry exports in 2022–23

Abstract

In early 2022, APHIS confirmed a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), signaling the beginning of an extensive HPAI outbreak. Since the start of the outbreak in 2022, more than 105 million birds across commercial and backyard operations in 48 states have been affected. Many countries, including top importers of U.S. poultry meat and products, have imposed trade restrictions on U.S. poultry exports in response to the outbreak. We examine the impacts of county- and state-level restrictions and HPAI cases on U.S. poultry exports in 2022 and 2023 using a fixed-effects Poisson model. We find that state-level restrictions have a negative and statistically significant effect on export value, associated with a 60% decline in real export value, compared to when no state restrictions are in place. Conversely, county-level restrictions are associated with a 16% decline, suggesting that geographic granularity is an important determinant of the impact of a ban and USDA efforts to negotiate for more localized restrictions ensure the continuation of U.S. poultry exports under an animal health emergency.