Network optimization and deployment for carbon capture and storage in China's coal-fired power plants

Abstract

The low-carbon energy transition and sustainable development are crucial for addressing global climate change. As the only technology currently capable of achieving large-scale decarbonization of fossil fuels, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is essential, especially for China, which heavily relies on coal-fired power generation. This study proposes a novel method for optimizing the network of coal-fired power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. To address the needs of China's transition strategy and industrial policy, we investigate the deployment trajectories of coal-fired power plants with CCS under different carbon quota constraints and various coal-fired power development scenarios. We found that, depending on future transition scenarios, the deployment scale of CCS coal-fired power plants ranges from 33.26 GW to 406.4 GW. Specifically, around 30 GW–60 GW will need to be deployed by 2035, with an additional 70 GW–150 GW required by 2050. Failure to accelerate early deployment could significantly increase the pressure on the coal power sector to reduce emissions and hinder the overall carbon reduction process in China. The coal-fired units needing retrofitting are primarily concentrated in the 'Three North' regions, and with larger deployment scales, this will gradually spread to Central and Eastern China. Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Xinjiang will bear the highest capture cost expenditures. The total length of CO₂ transportation pipelines may reach up to 25 thousand km, with many pipelines requiring cross-provincial or cross-regional construction. Lastly, based on the findings of this study, development suggestions are proposed for advancing coal power CCS.