Foresight Scenarios: The Future Impact of Technology in Freight Forwarding, an International Delphi Study

Abstract

The freight forwarding (FF) industry plays a key role in running global supply chains, with a sales revenue of $180.66 billion in 2021. Digitization in supply chain management, a thriving topic in the past few years, has been accelerated by the challenges of COVID-19 and presents both challenges and opportunities for the FF industry which requires freight forwarders to adapt. Since technological foresight studies for the FF space are scarce, the specific expected impacts of digitization in FF remain unrevealed today. The aim of this study is to examine upcoming changes in the FF industry expected by FF professionals and academics over the next 30 years against the background of current technological developments and to identify related resilience measures for FF organizations. Overall, 84 international experts shared their estimates in a Delphi survey. The results are clustered into four clusters that provide an outlook for the future of FF. The results show that FF organizations should adapt to developing customer expectations, a change in the FF profile due to new requirements and a change of vision for the development of human resources. Still, experts see a high relevance for FF services in the future despite all technological developments.