Cities that breathe: Quantifying carbon emission reductions through forest city designation

Abstract

Amid escalating global climate concerns, urban carbon reduction strategies have gained increasing significance for sustainable development. This study investigates the carbon abatement impact of China's forest city designation over the past two decades, utilizing a difference-in-differences model within a quasi-natural experimental framework. The baseline estimates indicate that, after the policy implementation, the treatment group experienced a reduction of 2.482 million metric tons in carbon emissions. Applying social cost of carbon and mortality cost of carbon, this reduction translates into economic benefits ranging from $76.94 million to $90.84 million, while potentially preventing 266 to 560 premature deaths associated with climate change. The effectiveness mechanisms include increased forest area, enhanced stock volume, expanded urban greening, improved carbon sequestration capacity, and heightened public environmental awareness as evidenced by rising environmental complaints. Furthermore, green finance initiatives and environmental legislation significantly amplify the decarbonization effects of forest city designation. Mayor characteristics also demonstrate moderating effects, with gender diversity, higher educational attainment, humanities and social sciences backgrounds, and hometown service appointments contributing to more effective climate change responses. This research provides empirical evidence that urban forestry policies can deliver quantifiable climate benefits, offering valuable insights for policymakers seeking nature-based solutions to address urban carbon challenges in an increasingly warming world.