Emergent constraints for uncertainty reduction in climate projections

IF 1.8 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106556

C. Varotsos , M. Efstathiou , N. Sarlis

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Studying longwave radiation and surface air temperature is essential for understanding Earth's energy budget and climate dynamics. These factors are fundamental for spotting trends, forecasting future situations, and evaluating how human actions affect global warming, making their accurate values very important. In this study, we analyze the uncertainties in surface downward longwave radiation, average monthly values of absorbed longwave radiation, and average monthly surface air temperature obtained from advanced models. The combination of the emergent constraint approach and natural time analysis was used for the first time to study the variability of these climate parameters and explore ways to reduce uncertainty. The data analysis reveals significant findings that enhance the reliability of future climate simulations, especially regarding the forecast of the atmospheric greenhouse effect components for the next two years.

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减少气候预估不确定性的紧急限制

研究长波辐射和地表空气温度对于理解地球的能量收支和气候动力学至关重要。这些因素是发现趋势、预测未来情况和评估人类活动如何影响全球变暖的基础，因此它们的准确值非常重要。本文分析了由先进模式获得的地表向下长波辐射、月平均长波辐射吸收值和月平均地表气温的不确定性。首次将紧急约束方法与自然时间分析相结合，研究了这些气候参数的变率，并探讨了降低不确定性的方法。数据分析的重要发现提高了未来气候模拟的可靠性，特别是关于未来两年大气温室效应分量的预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them. The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.