The Projection of Extreme Heat and Precipitation Events in China Response to Global Warming Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 Scenarios

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Yuanlan Wang, Xinwei Bai, Yizhu Lei, Wei Ding, Sheng Wu
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Abstract

Global warming has substantial effects on humans and ecosystems through changes in extreme events. China is a densely populated region with complex geographical characteristics, making it crucial to assess the changes in extreme events in China under various global warming scenarios. This study utilises 20 CMIP6 models to investigate how extreme heat and precipitation events in China are impacted by weak and strong global warming. The extreme heat indices in China are consistently on the rise in terms of their intensity, frequency, and duration. High latitude regions demonstrate a greater increase in intensity, whereas the Tibetan Plateau exhibits the most significant rise in frequency and duration. The rise of extreme precipitation indices is more distinct in the coastal area and less in the interior, consistent with the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter”. Furthermore, there is a noteworthy increase in extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau, which may be associated with glacial meltwater or the influence of the Indian monsoon.

Abstract Image

SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下中国极端高温和降水事件响应全球变暖的预估
全球变暖通过极端事件的变化对人类和生态系统产生重大影响。中国是一个人口稠密的地区,地理特征复杂,因此评估各种全球变暖情景下中国极端事件的变化至关重要。本研究利用20个CMIP6模型研究了弱和强全球变暖对中国极端高温和降水事件的影响。中国极端高温指数在强度、频率和持续时间上均呈持续上升趋势。高纬度地区表现出更大的强度增加,而青藏高原在频率和持续时间上表现出最显著的增加。极端降水指数的上升趋势在沿海地区更为明显,而在内陆地区较少,符合“干越干,湿越湿”的规律。此外,青藏高原极端降水显著增加,这可能与冰川融水或印度季风的影响有关。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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