The Projection of Extreme Heat and Precipitation Events in China Response to Global Warming Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 Scenarios

Abstract

Global warming has substantial effects on humans and ecosystems through changes in extreme events. China is a densely populated region with complex geographical characteristics, making it crucial to assess the changes in extreme events in China under various global warming scenarios. This study utilises 20 CMIP6 models to investigate how extreme heat and precipitation events in China are impacted by weak and strong global warming. The extreme heat indices in China are consistently on the rise in terms of their intensity, frequency, and duration. High latitude regions demonstrate a greater increase in intensity, whereas the Tibetan Plateau exhibits the most significant rise in frequency and duration. The rise of extreme precipitation indices is more distinct in the coastal area and less in the interior, consistent with the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter”. Furthermore, there is a noteworthy increase in extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau, which may be associated with glacial meltwater or the influence of the Indian monsoon.