{"title":"Potential Impacts of the North Atlantic Horseshoe Pattern on China Compound Heat-Humidity Extremes","authors":"Jiayi Mu, Qianrong Ma, Shiquan Wan, Rui Hu, Shujuan Hu, Guolin Feng","doi":"10.1002/joc.8808","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compound heat-humidity extremes (CHHEs) have gained significant attention as crucial indicators of heat stress. This research investigates the summer wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) to elucidate the spatial variation of CHHEs across China from 1961 to 2022. The results reveal a clear increase in CHHEs, with the highest WBGT observed in southeastern China, while significant increases are noted in the northwestern and northeastern regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis identifies three leading patterns: a consistent spatial increase, a north (decreasing)–south (increasing) dipole, and a west (decreasing)–east (increasing) dipole. Both observations and model simulations indicate that the North Atlantic Horseshoe (NAH) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern is a reliable predictor for CHHEs in China via influencing the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and modulating large-scale circulations. This combined with the westward extension of the Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone (WNPAC), leads to a consistent rise in CHHEs, particularly in Central China. Regarding the north–south dipole, air-sea interactions driven by the NAH reinforce the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern through the NAO, intensifying cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies over Mongolia to northern China and southern China, respectively. Furthermore, the NAH pattern during May–July effectively predicts summer CHHEs north–south dipole variations using the genetic algorithm-based evolving neural network. This research offers valuable insights for predicting CHHEs in China from the perspective of North Atlantic SST anomalies.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8808","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8808","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Compound heat-humidity extremes (CHHEs) have gained significant attention as crucial indicators of heat stress. This research investigates the summer wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) to elucidate the spatial variation of CHHEs across China from 1961 to 2022. The results reveal a clear increase in CHHEs, with the highest WBGT observed in southeastern China, while significant increases are noted in the northwestern and northeastern regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis identifies three leading patterns: a consistent spatial increase, a north (decreasing)–south (increasing) dipole, and a west (decreasing)–east (increasing) dipole. Both observations and model simulations indicate that the North Atlantic Horseshoe (NAH) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern is a reliable predictor for CHHEs in China via influencing the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and modulating large-scale circulations. This combined with the westward extension of the Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone (WNPAC), leads to a consistent rise in CHHEs, particularly in Central China. Regarding the north–south dipole, air-sea interactions driven by the NAH reinforce the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern through the NAO, intensifying cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies over Mongolia to northern China and southern China, respectively. Furthermore, the NAH pattern during May–July effectively predicts summer CHHEs north–south dipole variations using the genetic algorithm-based evolving neural network. This research offers valuable insights for predicting CHHEs in China from the perspective of North Atlantic SST anomalies.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions