Potential Impacts of the North Atlantic Horseshoe Pattern on China Compound Heat-Humidity Extremes

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Jiayi Mu, Qianrong Ma, Shiquan Wan, Rui Hu, Shujuan Hu, Guolin Feng
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Abstract

Compound heat-humidity extremes (CHHEs) have gained significant attention as crucial indicators of heat stress. This research investigates the summer wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) to elucidate the spatial variation of CHHEs across China from 1961 to 2022. The results reveal a clear increase in CHHEs, with the highest WBGT observed in southeastern China, while significant increases are noted in the northwestern and northeastern regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis identifies three leading patterns: a consistent spatial increase, a north (decreasing)–south (increasing) dipole, and a west (decreasing)–east (increasing) dipole. Both observations and model simulations indicate that the North Atlantic Horseshoe (NAH) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern is a reliable predictor for CHHEs in China via influencing the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and modulating large-scale circulations. This combined with the westward extension of the Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone (WNPAC), leads to a consistent rise in CHHEs, particularly in Central China. Regarding the north–south dipole, air-sea interactions driven by the NAH reinforce the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern through the NAO, intensifying cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies over Mongolia to northern China and southern China, respectively. Furthermore, the NAH pattern during May–July effectively predicts summer CHHEs north–south dipole variations using the genetic algorithm-based evolving neural network. This research offers valuable insights for predicting CHHEs in China from the perspective of North Atlantic SST anomalies.

Abstract Image

北大西洋马蹄形模式对中国复合热湿极端事件的潜在影响
复合热湿极端值(CHHEs)作为热应激的重要指标受到了广泛关注。利用1961 - 2022年夏季全球湿球温度(WBGT)研究了中国CHHEs的空间变化特征。结果表明,CHHEs明显增加,东南地区WBGT最高,西北和东北地区显著增加。经验正交函数分析确定了三种主要模式:一致的空间增加,北(减少)-南(增加)偶极子,以及西(减少)-东(增加)偶极子。观测和模式模拟均表明,北大西洋马蹄形海温(SST)异常型通过影响北大西洋涛动(NAO)和调节大尺度环流是中国CHHEs的可靠预测因子。这与北太平洋西部异常反气旋(WNPAC)向西扩展相结合,导致chhs持续上升,特别是在中国中部。在南北偶极子方面,由西北季风驱动的海气相互作用通过NAO加强了欧亚大陆(EU)遥相关型的负相,分别增强了蒙古上空到中国北部和中国南部的气旋和反气旋异常。此外,利用基于遗传算法的进化神经网络,5 - 7月的NAH模式可以有效地预测夏季CHHEs的南北偶极子变化。本研究为从北大西洋海温异常的角度预测中国CHHEs提供了有价值的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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