Differences in vehicle electrification policies and optimal transition periods across countries

Abstract

Transitioning to electric vehicles has become a global carbon neutrality policy goal. However, vehicle electrification may have different outcomes depending on the energy mix scenario, average driving distance, vehicle lifetime, and vehicle manufacturing supply chain in a country. Hence, in this study, we applied the life cycle optimization approach to identify optimal car replacement periods, which would yield the lowest cumulative CO₂ emissions for 2020–2050 in six countries: China, Germany, Finland, India, Japan, and the United States. The results showed that a discrepancy is evident between the existing policies of Germany, Japan, and the United States. To optimize CO₂ emission reduction, these policies necessitate revision. Additionally, given the profound impact of region-specific parameters, such as driving distance and vehicle preferences, the United States should endeavor to develop state-specific policies predicated upon detailed state-level data.