Future Wind Conditions in the German Bight Under RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario (2006–2099) From Regional Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model System MPIOM-REMO

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
María Ortega, Sara Rubinetti, Gaziza Konyssova, Bernhard Mayer, Enrique Sánchez, Claudia Gutiérrez, Karen Helen Wiltshire, Vera Sidorenko
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Abstract

The German Bight, located in the southeastern part of the North Sea, undergoes notable variations in wind direction and intensity over time. In this work, the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere system and dynamically downscaled model MPIOM-REMO under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario (2006–2099) have been used to analyse future wind conditions for Helgoland Island and Dogger Bank areas in the German Bight. The results suggest an increase in wind speed with respect to the historical period (1950–2005) during the winter months, especially in westerly directions, both in the historical period and in the projected future, reaching annual winter averages of 10 m/s. Future and present wind rose comparisons at the study sites reveal distinct patterns: at Helgoland, northerly and southerly winds occur less frequently and with lower magnitudes compared to Dogger Bank. Conversely, easterly and southeasterly winds are more prevalent at Helgoland. In the historical period, wind speed tends to increase in spring, but in the projected future, it decreases by 1 m/s. The summer wind conditions stay largely the same at both sites compared to the historical period. Wind events (hours that present sustained wind in one specific direction) are one of the main studied features, discarding those that are too short or not very intense. The frequency of westerly events, which predominate especially in the winter months, is increasing significantly, with about 10 more events per year by 2099, while the frequency of easterly events, more frequent in spring, is expected to decrease for both considered sites.

Abstract Image

区域海洋-大气耦合模式系统MPIOM-REMO在RCP8.5排放情景下(2006-2099)德国沿海未来风况
德国湾位于北海东南部,随着时间的推移,其风向和强度会发生显著变化。本文利用区域耦合海-气系统和动态缩小模型MPIOM-REMO,在RCP8.5排放情景(2006-2099)下,分析了德国近海Helgoland岛和Dogger Bank地区未来的风况。结果表明,与历史时期(1950-2005年)相比,冬季月份的风速有所增加,特别是在西风方向,在历史时期和预测的未来,达到10 m/s的年冬季平均风速。研究地点未来和现在的风升比较揭示了不同的模式:在Helgoland,与Dogger Bank相比,北风和南风发生的频率更低,强度更低。相反,在黑尔戈兰,东风和东南风更为普遍。在历史时期,风速在春季有增加的趋势,但在未来的预测中,风速减少了1 m/s。与历史时期相比,两个地点的夏季风况基本保持不变。风事件(在一个特定方向持续出现风的小时数)是研究的主要特征之一,而忽略了那些太短或不是很强烈的风事件。特别是在冬季月份占主导地位的西风事件的频率正在显著增加,到2099年每年将增加约10次,而在春季更频繁的东风事件的频率预计将在两个考虑的地点减少。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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