Climate Change Hotspots for Türkiye

Abstract

Depending on various indicators, climate change may affect each region globally at varying risk levels. Therefore, identifying the ‘hotspots’ most likely to be affected by climate change in the future is a crucial step in ensuring those areas rapidly adapt to it. The study estimated the Standard Euclidean Distance (SED) for identifying hotspots of Türkiye using high-resolution climate projection data (10 × 10 km) and examined regional vulnerability in the long-term future over a 75-year period (2024–2099). The projections were made using RegCM4.4 driven by MPI-ESM-MR under the optimistic (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios. The findings indicate that the hotspot regions in Türkiye are Southeastern Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and the Mediterranean for RCP4.5, and Southeastern Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia, the Mediterranean and Central Anatolia for RCP8.5. The most critical indicators, however, are temperature-related indicators (i.e., Mean Air Temperature, Hot Seasons and Temperature Variability). Based on the findings, it is necessary to take preventive measures, particularly in highly vulnerable regions, to minimise potential damage. Additionally, multi-model ensemble studies should be applied to reduce the uncertainties and model-related variability, as well as to provide robust evidence of climate change.