Temperature magnitude duration frequency curves to unravel temperature extremes incorporating climate change across India

Abstract

This study demonstrated the utility of temperature magnitude duration frequency (TMDF) curves for quantifying and comparing the risk of extreme temperatures in 41 cities across India, classified under Koppen-Geiger climate zones. Results from all the cities reveal that as the duration of the event increases, there is a decrease in the magnitude of extreme temperature events for the same return period. The spatial mean extreme temperature events were highest for cities in the temperate, dry, and hot summer (Csa) climate zone and lowest in the tropical monsoon (Am) climate zone. The cities falling under the ‘Am’ and ‘Csa’ climate zones depicted an average increase of 4.7 °C and 3.4 °C respectively, for far-future SSP585 climate scenario. The cities under arid, steppe, and hot ‘BSh’, temperate, dry, and hot summer ‘Csa’ and temperate, dry winter, and hot summer ‘Cwa’ climate zones also exhibited extreme temperature events with prolonged duration and increased frequency. A 10-year return period event lasting 10 days shows a significant increase of 0.4 °C to 2.6 °C in the national capital of India, considering far-future climate scenarios. The future climate scenario-based TMDF provide insights to the policymakers and urban planners to target zone-specific mitigation measures against temperature extremes.