A multi-scale model for renewable portfolio standard-driven provincial energy planning in China

Abstract

Given the significant mismatch between renewable resource endowments and power demand among provinces, coordinated planning of renewable energy development become crucial. This study develops a multi-scale optimization model to investigate provincial renewable energy planning strategies under Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets during 2020–2040. The model uniquely integrates three spatial scales: individual provincial power systems, inter-provincial transmission networks, and national renewable energy deployment targets. This model simultaneously optimizes: (1) provincial generation mix considering local resource availability and demand patterns, (2) inter-provincial power exchange capabilities based on existing and planned transmission infrastructure, and (3) energy storage deployment to enhance system flexibility. Key findings reveal that: (1) meeting provincial RPS targets requires wind and solar power to constitute 59 % of national installed capacity by 2040; (2) strengthening power exchange capacity between Central China provinces is crucial, particularly for alleviating Hubei's power export pressure; (3) energy storage systems show increasing effectiveness in promoting renewable integration under higher RPS targets, but advancements in cost-effective storage technologies are needed to improve overall economics; (4) coordinating total RPS targets with non-hydro RPS targets is essential to avoid cost increases and resource waste resulting from frequent RE power exchanges.