How does policy modelling work in practice? A global analysis on the use of epidemiological modelling in health crises.

Abstract

This study examines the use and translation of epidemiological modelling by policy and decision makers in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Prior to COVID-19, there was little readiness for global health systems, and many science-policy networks were assembled ad-hoc. Moreover, in the field of epidemiological modelling, one with significant sudden influence, there is still no international guidance or standard of practice on how modelled evidence should guide policy during major health crises. Here we use a multi-country case study on the use of epidemiological modelling in emergency COVID-19 response, to examine the effective integration of crisis science and policy in different countries. We investigated COVID-19 modelling-policy systems and practices in 13 countries, spanning all six UN geographic regions. Data collection took the form of expert interviews with a range of national policy/ decision makers, scientific advisors, and modellers. We examined the current use of epidemiological modelling, introduced a classification framework for outbreak modelling and policy on which best practice can be structured, and provided preliminary recommendations for future practice. Full analysis and interpretation of the breadth of interview responses is presented, providing evidence for the current and future use of modelling in disease outbreaks. We found that interviewees in countries with a similar size and type of modelling infrastructure, and similar level of government interaction with modelling reported similar experiences and recommendations on using modelling in outbreak response. From this, we introduced a helpful grouping of country experience upon which a tailored future best practice could be structured. We concluded the article by outlining context-specific activities that modellers and policy actors could consider implementing in their own countries. This article serves as a first evidence base for the current use of modelling in a recent major health crisis and provides a robust framework for developing epidemiological modelling-to-policy best practice.