Trends and future burden of other musculoskeletal diseases in China (1990-2041): a comparative analysis with G20 countries using GBD data.

Abstract

Background: Other musculoskeletal diseases (OMSDs), as a critical component of the global public health challenge, remain understudied in China. This study aims to systematically analyze the epidemiological characteristics and future trends of OMSDs in China from 1990 to 2021.

Methods: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD) 2021, this research focused on prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs), which were compared with G20 countries. Joinpoint regression was used to identify trend breakpoints, age-period-cohort analysis evaluated the independent effects of age, period, and cohort, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model predicted the disease burden through 2041.

Results: Between 1990 and 2021, both age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and YLDs rates(ASYR) of OMSDs in China showed upward trends. Two critical turning points in ASPR occurred during 2000-2005 (APC = 1.5%, 95% CI: 1.4-1.6) and 2005-2009 (APC = 0.9%, 95% CI: 0.7-1.0). Age effects indicated that relative risk (RR) first increased and then decreased with age, peaking at 60-64 years (RR = 3.62, 95% CI: 3.62-3.63). Period effects showed a rising trend, while cohort effects revealed declining prevalence and YLDs rates. Projections suggest a gradual increase in burden indicators through 2041. Compared to other G20 countries, China ranked eighth from the bottom in disease burden, approaching the level of Germany.

Conclusion: The burden of OMSDs in China continues to rise, particularly among women and the elderly. Although the current burden is at a mid-range level among G20 nations, population aging will exacerbate future challenges. To address this, advocating for healthy lifestyles, strengthening health education, and optimizing healthcare strategies are essential.