Perception and Reality of Energy Poverty in Australia: Do They Shape Voting Intentions?

Abstract

This study examines how energy poverty shapes voting intentions in Australia. We compare support for the major parties (Labor and the Liberal National Coalition) with support for the minor parties. We also examine how energy poverty influences two-party preferred voting intentions between the two major parties (Coalition and Labor). We find that energy-poor households have 8 percentage points lower probability of supporting either major party compared to alternatives and that energy poor households are 1.4 times more likely to intend to vote for right wing populist minor parties than other minor parties or independents. When comparing Labor and the Coalition directly, energy poverty reduces support for Labor by 3.7 percentage points, reflecting Labor's stronger climate policies that voters likely associate with higher energy costs, while the Coalition's fossil fuel-aligned stance appears to resonate more with energy stressed households. The findings contribute to economic voting theories by demonstrating how sector-specific financial stress can reshape political behaviour.