Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Mid-Latitude GPS Scintillation and Position Errors During the May 2024 Solar Storm

Abstract

This study investigates impacts of the May 2024 superstorm on the mid-latitude Global Positioning System (GPS) scintillation and position errors. Using 1-Hz GPS receiver data, we identified position errors in PPP mode reaching up to 70 m in the Central United States during the storm main phase on May 10. The PPK solution becomes unstable following the arrival of storm and lasted till the recovery phase, coinciding with reported GPS outages of farming equipment. The large position errors were attributed to strong scintillation and carrier phase cycle slips around the equatorward boundary of the ionosphere trough, where large total electron content (TEC) gradients and irregularities were present. In the Southwestern United States, position errors of 10–20 m were associated with the storm-enhanced density and equatorial ionization anomaly. Scintillation and cycle slips in this region were minor, and bending of the GPS signal paths (refractive effect) is suggested to cause the position errors. PPP outages were also associated with sudden changes in the geometric distributions of available GPS satellites used in position calculations. On May 11, energetic particle precipitation during substorms led to abrupt jumps in TEC and scintillation, resulting in rapidly evolving position errors of up to 10 m. These findings highlight the critical role of storm-time plasma transport, precipitation, and irregularity formation in degrading GPS performance. The study underscores the need for accurate ionospheric state specification, improved signal processing technique, real-time ionospheric corrections, and optimized satellite selection algorithms, to enhance navigation resilience during severe space weather events.