Soaking up the Sun: Battery Investment, Renewable Energy, and Market Equilibrium

IF 6.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI:10.3982/ECTA20411

R. Andrew Butters, Jackson Dorsey, Gautam Gowrisankaran

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Renewable energy and battery storage are seen as complementary technologies that can together facilitate reductions in carbon emissions. We develop and estimate a framework to calculate the equilibrium effects of large-scale battery storage. Using data from California, we find that the first storage unit breaks even by 2024 without subsidies when the renewable energy share reaches 50%. Equilibrium effects are important: the first 5000 MWh of storage capacity would reduce wholesale electricity prices by 5.6%, but an increase from 25,000 to 50,000 MWh would only reduce these prices by 2.6%. Large-scale batteries will reduce revenues to both dispatchable generators and renewable energy sources. The equilibrium effects lead battery adoption to be virtually non-existent until 2030, without a storage mandate or subsidy. A 30% capital cost subsidy—such as the one in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act—achieves 5000 MWh of battery capacity by 2024, similar to the level required under California's storage mandate.

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吸收阳光：电池投资、可再生能源和市场平衡

可再生能源和电池存储被视为互补的技术，可以共同促进减少碳排放。我们开发并估计了一个框架来计算大规模电池存储的平衡效应。利用加州的数据，我们发现，到2024年，当可再生能源份额达到50%时，第一个储能单元在没有补贴的情况下实现收支平衡。平衡效应很重要：第一个5000兆瓦时的储能容量将使批发电价降低5.6%，但从2.5万兆瓦时增加到5万兆瓦时，只会使批发电价降低2.6%。大型电池将减少可调度发电机和可再生能源的收入。平衡效应导致电池的采用在2030年之前几乎不存在，因为没有储能授权或补贴。30%的资本成本补贴——比如美国《通货膨胀减少法案》中的补贴——到2024年实现5000兆瓦时的电池容量，这与加州储能要求的水平相似。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Econometrica 社会科学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics. Econometrica maintains a long tradition that submitted articles are refereed carefully and that detailed and thoughtful referee reports are provided to the author as an aid to scientific research, thus ensuring the high calibre of papers found in Econometrica. An international board of editors, together with the referees it has selected, has succeeded in substantially reducing editorial turnaround time, thereby encouraging submissions of the highest quality. We strongly encourage recent Ph. D. graduates to submit their work to Econometrica. Our policy is to take into account the fact that recent graduates are less experienced in the process of writing and submitting papers.