Assessing uncertainty in forecasts of refugia for Joshua trees using high-density distribution data

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY
Ecosphere Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI:10.1002/ecs2.70308
Daniel F. Shryock, Todd C. Esque, Gabrielle A. Berry, Lesley A. DeFalco
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Yucca jaegeriana) are iconic, foundational species of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts in North America. Due to their ecosystem importance, long generation times, and low resilience to disturbance, these hybridizing sister species are increasingly the focus of conservation efforts. Predicting Joshua tree responses to impending climate variability, along with the extent of suitable future habitat and/or climate refugia, is critical to ongoing management planning. Previous modeling efforts have been hampered by incomplete distribution data and are now out-of-date with the most recent global climate projections. We used a high-resolution, field-validated distributional database of nearly complete presence and absence records, along with a simulation of dispersal, to project Joshua tree distributions into future time periods and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) emissions scenarios. Overall, our models predict widespread habitat loss with limited availability of newly suitable habitat. Under the highest emissions scenario (SSP5–8.5), we project that up to 80% of current habitat may become unsuitable by 2100. Even so, our models predict a larger area of potential refugia than some previous efforts, particularly in the southern parts of the range, where we project persistent refugia through 2100. We also found a non-negligible influence of baseline climate period (the period used to represent “current” climate) on predicted future habitat probabilities. Simulations of dispersal based on the Joshua tree's limited capacity suggest that over 25% of suitable future habitat could be inaccessible, while much of the remaining future habitat area consists of refugia within the upper elevations of the species' current range. An increasing frequency of wildfire appears to be the greatest rangewide threat to future suitable habitat for Joshua trees, followed by renewable energy development. Over 80% of future suitable habitat occurs on federally managed lands, including up to 47% within Bureau of Land Management-administered areas and 15% within National Park Service units.

Abstract Image

利用高密度分布数据评估约书亚树避难所预测的不确定性
约书亚树(短叶丝兰和紫丝兰)是北美莫哈韦沙漠和索诺兰沙漠的标志性基础物种。由于其在生态系统中的重要性、较长的世代和较低的抗干扰能力,这些杂交姐妹种日益成为保护工作的重点。预测约书亚树对即将到来的气候变化的反应,以及未来合适的栖息地和/或气候避难所的范围,对持续的管理规划至关重要。以前的建模工作受到分布数据不完整的阻碍,现在与最新的全球气候预测已经过时。我们使用了一个高分辨率的、经过现场验证的分布数据库,包含了几乎完整的存在和不存在记录,以及模拟扩散,来预测约书亚树在未来时间段的分布和耦合模式比对项目第6阶段(CMIP6)的排放情景。总的来说,我们的模型预测了广泛的栖息地丧失,而新适宜栖息地的可用性有限。在最高排放情景下(SSP5-8.5),我们预计到2100年,高达80%的现有栖息地可能变得不适合。即便如此,我们的模型预测的潜在避难所面积比之前的一些研究预测的要大,特别是在该地区的南部,我们预计到2100年那里会有持续的避难所。我们还发现,基线气候期(用来表示“当前”气候的时期)对预测未来栖息地概率的影响不可忽视。基于约书亚树有限能力的扩散模拟表明,超过25%的合适的未来栖息地可能无法进入,而剩余的未来栖息地区域大部分由物种当前范围的高海拔地区组成。对未来约书亚树适宜栖息地的最大威胁似乎是日益频繁的野火,其次是可再生能源的发展。超过80%的未来适宜栖息地位于联邦管理的土地上,其中47%在土地管理局管理的区域内,15%在国家公园管理局的单位内。
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来源期刊
Ecosphere
Ecosphere ECOLOGY-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
378
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊介绍: The scope of Ecosphere is as broad as the science of ecology itself. The journal welcomes submissions from all sub-disciplines of ecological science, as well as interdisciplinary studies relating to ecology. The journal''s goal is to provide a rapid-publication, online-only, open-access alternative to ESA''s other journals, while maintaining the rigorous standards of peer review for which ESA publications are renowned.
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