Attack on Climate: The Persistent Effects of Authoritarianism on Climate Policy Equilibria

Abstract

In this paper, I examine whether exposure to authoritarian rule, which often focuses on preventing the emergence of pro-environmental groups that might threaten regime stability, persists after regime collapse and the onset of democratisation. Empirically, I exploit the post-World War II division of Germany into two states, one of which became a liberal democracy and the other a Soviet-style autocracy, in a geographic regression discontinuity design. I show that districts from the former East have lower climate policy equilibrium levels, which means that more climate-ambitious political parties are less likely to receive strong electoral support. Crucially, these effects are independent of East Germans' preferences over other political conflicts, suggesting that authoritarian rule had a direct and persistent effect on environmental attitudes. Moreover, I show that the authoritarian legacy also manifests itself in increased polarisation over climate change policies, which, combined with lower demand for such measures, makes the former East Germany a breeding ground for climate-sceptical political parties.