A calibration procedure for simulation models of rural residential buildings using monthly energy bills: A case study in Zhejiang, China

IF 6.4 2区工程技术 Q1 THERMODYNAMICS

Case Studies in Thermal Engineering Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI:10.1016/j.csite.2025.106463

Yuanyuan Wei , Song He , Ping Huang , Yuechen Duan , Bart Julien Dewancker , Luyao Zhou

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Building energy simulation (BES) is crucial for planning energy-efficient retrofits in rural Chinese residences, yet its accuracy is often limited by insufficient calibration data. This study develops a practical and efficient model calibration procedure that combines monthly electricity bills with a multi-objective genetic algorithm to improve BES reliability under low-data conditions. A case study on a typical rural dwelling in Zhejiang Province was conducted. Nine key parameters—relating to envelope performance, equipment efficiency, and heating schedules—were selected to capture major modeling uncertainties. Calibration followed ASHRAE Guideline 14, targeting a Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE) of ≤5 % and a Coefficient of Variation of the Root Mean Square Error (CV(RMSE)) of ≤15 %. Results showed that NMBE was reduced from 12.775 % to 0.108 %, and CV(RMSE) from 21.294 % to 11.054 %, confirming the procedure's effectiveness. The proposed approach enables accurate BES calibration using low-resolution data, bridging the gap between limited field data and the need for reliable energy modeling. It offers a scalable, cost-effective solution to support large-scale retrofit planning in rural settings.

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使用月能源账单的农村居民楼模拟模型的校准程序：以中国浙江为例

建筑能量模拟（BES）对于我国农村住宅节能改造规划至关重要，但其准确性往往受到校准数据不足的限制。本研究开发了一种实用高效的模型校准程序，将月电费与多目标遗传算法相结合，以提高低数据条件下BES的可靠性。以浙江省某典型农村住宅为例进行了研究。9个关键参数——与围护结构性能、设备效率和加热计划有关——被选择来捕捉主要的建模不确定性。校准遵循ASHRAE指南14，目标是标准化平均偏差误差(NMBE)≤5%，均方根误差变异系数(CV(RMSE))≤15%。结果表明，NMBE由12.775%降至0.108%，CV（RMSE）由21.294%降至11.054%，证实了该方法的有效性。所提出的方法可以使用低分辨率数据进行精确的BES校准，弥合了有限的现场数据与可靠的能量建模需求之间的差距。它提供了一种可扩展的、具有成本效益的解决方案，以支持农村地区的大规模改造规划。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Case Studies in Thermal Engineering Chemical Engineering-Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes

CiteScore

8.60

自引率

11.80%

发文量

812

审稿时长

76 days

期刊介绍： Case Studies in Thermal Engineering provides a forum for the rapid publication of short, structured Case Studies in Thermal Engineering and related Short Communications. It provides an essential compendium of case studies for researchers and practitioners in the field of thermal engineering and others who are interested in aspects of thermal engineering cases that could affect other engineering processes. The journal not only publishes new and novel case studies, but also provides a forum for the publication of high quality descriptions of classic thermal engineering problems. The scope of the journal includes case studies of thermal engineering problems in components, devices and systems using existing experimental and numerical techniques in the areas of mechanical, aerospace, chemical, medical, thermal management for electronics, heat exchangers, regeneration, solar thermal energy, thermal storage, building energy conservation, and power generation. Case studies of thermal problems in other areas will also be considered.