Research Note: Sources used for trip planning when there is no avalanche forecast

Abstract

This study investigates the information sources used by recreational winter backcountry users in Norway for trip planning when official avalanche forecasts are unavailable, particularly before December. 86 (25 %) out of 347 participants refrained from backcountry trips due to conditions or timing. Of the remaining 261 participants, 184 (71 %) prioritized safe terrain, 189 (72 %) relied on personal assessment, 110 (42 %) utilized the Varsom platform for terrain information and observational data, 112 (43 %) used social media and 101 (39 %) consulted peers. Participants venturing into avalanche terrain relied more on own assessment than those venturing into safe terrain (92 % vs 64 %, p < .001). The reliance on unofficial sources may highlight a potential safety gap during the off-season, suggesting the need for improved communication and expanded early-season observational data. Recommendations include enhancing off-season data sharing on the forecasting platform, targeted safety education on social media, and encouraging recreationists to contribute observations to boost the quality and availability of early-season information. These steps could improve decision-making and risk assessment during trip planning among recreational backcountry users, promoting safer outdoor practices even outside the avalanche warning period.

Management and stakeholder Implications

The findings highlight the need for enhanced avalanche safety communication and decision-support tools during Norway's off-season, particularly in years with a lot of snowfall before December when official avalanche forecasts are unavailable. Implications are also relevant for warning services with similar challenges and regions where regular avalanche warnings are not issued. Recreational winter backcountry users heavily rely on personal judgment, social media, and peer advice, indicating a gap in standardized information sources. To address this, stakeholders should consider.

• •Expanding the information available on the avalanche bulletin (varsom.no). If no forecast can be provided on a needs basis by extending the forecasting season (e.g. due to limited resources), information should be made available especially observational data and terrain insights (where is it safe to go), to support safer decision-making.
• •Encouraging early-season data sharing from recreationists, possibly through incentives, to boost the observation database quality and usefulness in the avalanche bulletin.
• •Targeting initiatives on social media platforms to foster a culture of safety-oriented information sharing, thus reducing dependence on non-official sources.
• •Increasing educational campaigns that promote understanding and use of the observation database, critical assessment skills and familiarization with safe terrain choices.

These steps can promote safer use of the wild and unmanaged winter backcountry for both locals and tourists and enhance reliability of and trust in the avalanche forecast services.